(2001years6mon prediction time) forecast of exchange rates of each institution

“Facing to increase in yen value?”"Becoming weak yen?”With trend of the rate of exchange which is said produces big effect on corporate management and asset management of the individual.Then, with latest Close Up, each system announced this year June point in time economic prospect, but rate of exchange of toward Japan main circle of the U.S. dollars which had become the prerequisite was rearranged.Rearrangement is done the increase in yen value primary factor concerning the weak yen primary factor.

Most systems, estimating 2001 the weak yen keynote of 120 Yen level.It is designating the Japanese business deterioration and the more easy money of Bank of Japan with Koizumi reformation as the primary factor.

But, expectation 2002, divided into weak yen keynote continuous group (Nomura Research Institute, the Sumitomo trust) and the increase in yen value expectation group (Sanwa research institute and nitsusei Fundamental Research Laboratories) which you think that tendency 2001 continues.As a primary factor of increase in yen value expectation, the Sanwa research institute lists the Japanese from 2001 latter half business recovery, the nitsusei Fundamental Research Laboratories has listed the fact that the current account black-ink balance of Japan increases with weak yen 2001.As for details, please view the sight of each institution.

1. Prospect of each system

(1) annual prospect (Circle /US$)

(2) forecast by quarter (yen/US＄)

*fuji is a year-end (3the last day of the period of months) predict the exchange rate of. other institutions, 3predict the average exchange rate for months.

2. depreciation of the yen-appreciation of the yen main factor

(1) weaker yen (dollar) factor
by carrying out structural reforms, the economic downturn of the koizumi administration
· japan to further monetary easing
· u.s. economic recovery

(2) appreciation of the yen (weak dollar) factor
· japan’s current account surplus increased again by the weaker yen
-2001japan’s economic recovery from the second half of year
– (often the opinion that the appreciation of the yen by carrying out structural reforms of the koizumi administration is expected to be limited)

related sites
economy, exchange, outlook for interest rates
basic of foreign exchange－appreciation of the yen and the yen’s depreciation－